Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
