A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
